Chapter 6 >The Changing Geopolitical Landscape >The Middle East

U.S. Report - pdf version Leaders Questionnaire - pdf version Public Questionnaire - pdf version

The Middle East

Americans’ wariness of Islam and Muslims in general is also affecting attitudes toward Muslim/Arab countries. As a region linked to the attacks of September 11 and terrorist activity in general, the Middle East, a long-time priority in U.S. policy, is an intense focus of changing American perceptions. The Arab and Muslim nations in the region thought to be associated directly or indirectly with the attacks or to be sponsors of terrorism—Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, and Iraq—are viewed as important but unreliable or hostile. Turkey, a neighboring, moder-ate Muslim country and U.S. ally, has grown in impor-tance. The Arab-Israeli conflict has also taken on new relevance, with Americans largely preferring not to take sides in the conflict.

Connections to terrorism : Saudi Arabia , Egypt , Iran , Iraq

Americans see clear vital interests in Middle East nations with links to terrorism. Small to large majorities of Americans believe the United States has vital interests in Egypt (53%), Iran (75%), and Saudi Arabia (83%). Seventy-six percent see Iraq as a vital U.S. interest.

At the same time, feelings toward these countries are decidedly negative. Despite the U.S. partnership with Saudi Arabia in the Gulf War against Iraq and support for having long-term military bases there (65%), feelings about Saudi Arabia have gone from almost neutral to quite chilly, dropping 13 degrees from 46 degrees to 33 degrees (see Figure 6-6). This is almost as low as feelings toward Iran (28°) and Iraq (23°). Egypt suffers less from ill feelings on the thermometer scale, but still receives a cool 45 degree rating.

Other views on Saudi Arabia are also mostly unfavorable. The country is seen as a reliable partner in the war on terrorism by only 31% of Americans, the lowest reliability of any of the seven partners mentioned (see Figure 6-7). A bare majority (54%) would favor using U.S. troops to prevent the overthrow of the Saudi gov-ernment, but there is not a majority today (48%) that would favor using U.S. troops if Iraq were to invade Saudi Arabia, unless it was part of a UN-sponsored action together with other countries (77%).

There is no sign of thaw with Iran, labeled part of the “axis of evil” by President Bush, despite some signs of movement toward reform in the country. Long seen as associated with terrorist activity, Iran has held steady at or near the bottom of the thermometer scale in Council surveys since the Islamic revolution there two decades ago. As mentioned in Chapter 4, while 58% of Americans favor having diplomatic relations with Iran, 63% favor sanctions against it, and 60% oppose engaging in trade.

America’s most hostile feelings are reserved for Iraq (although feelings toward terrorist leader Osama bin Laden and the al Qaeda network were not surveyed). In addition to Iraq ranking the lowest of all 28 countries asked about on the thermometer, its leader Saddam Hussein barely registers on the scale at a frigid 8 degrees. As discussed earlier in this report, Iraqi devel-opment of weapons of mass destruction is the focus of this concern, with 86% of Americans considering it a critical threat. This translates into support for invading Iraq, with a total of 5% of Americans supporting an invasion, 65% with the condition of UN approval and the support of allies and 20% even if we have to go it alone (see Figure 3-10). Iraq also receives the strongest support of five “problem countries” (Cuba, Iraq, Iran, North Korea, China) for the use of economic sanctions (66% in favor, see Figure 4-8) and the strongest opposi-tion for engaging in trade (72% opposed). It is the only country of the five for which there is not a clear majori-ty favoring diplomatic relations (49%).

It is noteworthy that despite the strong reactions to questions posed on the subject of Iraq, not much con-cern about Iraq emerges spontaneously when people are asked about big problems facing the country. Fewer than 1% mention Iraq or Saddam Hussein among the two or three biggest problems facing the country and only 3% mention it as one of the two or three biggest foreign policy problems. This low concern may be attributable to the timing of the survey, which was taken in June 2002, just before the Bush administra-tion’s vocal campaign to generate support for its plans to attack Iraq. However, the finding is still an interesting measure of the low salience of the issue to the general public given its centrality to the Bush administration.

Turkey, a moderate Muslim nation and NATO member sitting on the periphery of the unstable Middle East, has risen sharply in the perception of vital interest, up 19 points to 52%, though feelings toward the coun-try are unchanged at 45 degrees. Fifty-eight percent of Americans favor having long-term military bases in Turkey, an important regional ally in the war on terror-ism and a model for success against Islamic extremism.

The Arab -Israeli conflict

Since the September 11 attacks and the escalation of violence in Israel and the occupied territories, the Arab-Israeli conflict has risen again as a high concern in the minds of Americans. While often at the top of American concern in Council surveys, the “Mideast sit-uation” is the second most cited foreign policy problem facing the country (12%) after terrorism (33%) in 2002, up 4% since 1998 (see Figure 1-4). “Unrest in Israel and Palestine” is third on the list, at 9%. Military conflict between Israel and its Arab neighbors is seen as a critical threat by 67%. The perception of Israel as a U.S. vital interest has risen 10 points since 1998, with 79% seeing it as vital today.

While the salience of the conflict is up, feelings toward Israel have remained largely the same. Israel receives a moderately warm 55 degrees on the ther-mometer, virtually the same as it received over the past four Council surveys.1 Prime Minister Ariel Sharon rates a neutral 51 degrees on the thermometer scale, similar to Benjamin Netanyahu in 1998 (48°) and Yitzhak Rabin in 1994 (51°), and higher than Yitzhak Shamir in 1990 (44°). The country is seen by 67% of Americans as a reliable partner in the war on terrorism. By contrast, Palestinians are rated at a cold 35 degrees and Arafat a very cold 22 degrees, down 16 degrees.

While Americans show much more favorability toward Israel than the Palestinians, a substantial majori-ty (71%) does not think the United States should take either Israel’s or the Palestinians’ side in the conflict, even though a majority (58%) think the United States generally takes Israel’s side (see Figure 6-9). Americans are ambivalent on the issue of establishing a Palestinian state, with 40% favoring it and 35% against it (25% don’t know). Yet a majority (58%) says President Bush’s endorsement of an independent Palestinian state was a good idea. Forty-six percent believe the United States should actively work to help establish a Palestinian state, while 45% think it should not.

The public is divided on several other issues. In a situation in which the United States disapproves of Israeli military operations against Palestinians, 46% of Americans favor telling Israel not to use U.S.-provided battlefield weapons, while 44% oppose. Forty-eight per-cent would favor coming to Israel’s aid in the event of an invasion by Arab forces, while 45% would not.

There is also division about economic aid to Israel, with opinion tilting more toward a decrease than an increase. While 18% of Americans want it increased, 26% want it decreased and 15% want to stop aid alto-gether, for a total of 41% on the down side. Thirty-seven percent want economic aid to Israel kept the same (see Figure 4-9).